A recent US media report suggests that former President Donald Trump is contemplating a more aggressive trade war with China than the one initiated in 2018. According to the report, Trump has been discussing the imposition of substantial tariffs on Chinese imports after potentially securing re-election, as he leads the Republican Party’s presidential primary.
Sources indicate that Trump has considered a flat 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, a move that experts believe could have far-reaching and adverse impacts on the global supply chain and economies worldwide, surpassing the damages caused by the earlier trade war.
As Trump approaches a potential return to the White House, he has been rallying his supporters with promises to reverse China’s most-favored-nation trade status. Countries enjoying this status benefit from lower tariffs, while those outside this category risk facing higher tariffs on their imported goods.
In his campaign, Trump criticized President Joe Biden, claiming that the US maintains the world’s lowest import levies, emphasizing the importance of these tariffs in supporting the country’s budget. He pledged a tougher stance against China, vowing to slash corporate taxes to boost earnings.
Senior economist Erica York expressed concerns, stating, “The 2018 to 2019 trade war was immensely damaging, and this would go so far beyond that it’s hard to even compare to that. This threatens to upend and fragment global trade to an extent we haven’t seen in centuries.”
While current duties on China are largely maintained by President Biden, who also restricted Chinese access to semiconductors and other equipment, Trump’s proposed move could lead to a significant escalation. During his previous presidency, Trump substantially increased the national debt through higher spending and tax cuts.
A report by the US-China Business Council and Oxford Economics in November projected that the end of permanent normal trade relations with China would cost the US economy $1.6 trillion. The total US imports from China in 2022 were around $550 billion, and the current average tariff rate on those goods is approximately 12%.
Experts warn that Trump’s potential decision could trigger a global trade war, with consequences that extend far beyond the economic realms. As the international community watches closely, the possibility of a renewed and intensified trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies looms large, casting a shadow over global
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