Rabobank’s Global Poultry Quarterly Q3 2024 report signals a return to normal conditions for the poultry market, driven by rising consumption and disciplined supply growth. The industry is set to grow by 1.5-2% this year, nearing historic levels after four years of disruption.
Higher beef and pork prices have made chicken meat more competitive, with chicken prices rising only 2% compared to 4% for beef and 5% for pork. This price stability, along with increasing demand for processed poultry products, bodes well for the industry. Consumers are not only opting for more poultry but are also seeking higher-value products.
Despite the positive outlook, challenges remain. Feed prices are climbing again due to weaker harvest predictions in the Americas and Europe, following two years of decline. The industry must focus on strategic procurement to stay competitive.
Emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Asia, along with strong demand in the E.U. and U.S., are driving global growth. These regions have maintained controlled production and rising prices. Conversely, China and Japan have seen overexpansion, impacting profitability. China’s producers are now addressing this imbalance, while Japan’s high inflation is expected to keep demand subdued.
Brazil faces similar oversupply issues but recent production cuts are anticipated to restore balance. The country remains vigilant against avian risks as they return to the Southern Hemisphere.
Global poultry trade has faced setbacks, contracting by 5% in the first quarter compared to the same period in 2023. A significant factor is China, which imported 40% less poultry meat, impacting global trade flows and increasing competition in other markets.
Brazil, the U.S., and Russia, key suppliers to China, will need to find alternative markets. Ukraine also seeks new markets for its poultry following a reduced import quota from the E.U. Conversely, exporters with less reliance on China, such as the E.U. and Thailand, have experienced strong export demand. China continues to perform well in export markets.
Improved market conditions have led to more regions producing above breakeven. Long-performing regions like the E.U., South Africa, Russia, Mexico, and Colombia have been joined by the U.S., Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and India in showing significant market improvements this year.
Increased demand for processed poultry products signals better times ahead. Recovering global economic growth boosts consumer confidence, leading to higher spending. Since late last year, demand for processed poultry has surged, particularly from Europe and Singapore.
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