The latest Global Trade Update by the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reveals a mixed global economic outlook, with developing nations—particularly India and China—leading trade expansion, even as the world grapples with economic challenges. While global trade surged by nearly $1.2 trillion in 2024, reaching a total of $33 trillion, concerns over trade imbalances, geopolitical tensions, and rising protectionist policies cast a shadow over 2025.
India and China emerged as key drivers of trade momentum in the fourth quarter of 2024. Both nations recorded higher-than-average trade growth, contrasting with the sluggish performance of several developed economies. India’s quarterly imports in goods grew by 8%, reflecting an annual increase of 6%, while its exports of goods saw a 7% quarterly rise and a 2% annual growth. Similarly, China sustained strong export growth, further widening its trade surplus.
In contrast, many developed economies experienced trade contractions. The European Union, Japan, Russia, and South Africa reported negative import growth trends, while the United States faced a decline in export growth despite maintaining positive import figures. South Korea, which had previously shown strong export momentum, saw a slowdown in the final quarter of 2024.
Beyond goods, the services trade continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. India and South Africa remained at the forefront of services trade expansion. India’s quarterly services imports rose by 7%, with an annual increase of 10%, while its services exports also recorded a 10% annual rise. However, the report cautions that this upward trend in services trade may be stabilizing across most economies.
A widening trade imbalance remains a significant concern. The United States’ trade deficit expanded, while China’s trade surplus grew due to sustained export strength and steady demand. This imbalance, coupled with evolving global trade policies, signals potential disruptions ahead. The report also highlights a marked decline in container shipping demand in early 2025, indicated by a sharp drop in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index.
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