Copper prices are set to face mounting pressures in 2025 due to escalating US trade tariffs and economic uncertainties in China, key factors driving down market expectations. Citigroup projects copper prices will average $8,750 per ton in 2025, a sharp decline from its earlier forecast of $10,250 per ton.
Analysts attribute this to a restrictive monetary environment in developed economies and reduced policy support for electric vehicles, which are delaying a recovery in global manufacturing activity until beyond 2025. On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices recently stood at $9,100.50 per ton in Shanghai, marking a significant 20% decrease from its peak in May.
The drop reflects weaker demand from China—the world’s largest consumer of copper—and the impact of a strengthening US dollar. Although China may introduce fiscal stimulus to counter economic headwinds, President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and additional levies on goods from other regions further cloud the outlook for the industrial metal.
In 2023, the United States exported $1.5 billion worth of copper, with primary destinations including Mexico ($1.3 billion), Canada ($69.8 million), and Germany ($67.3 million), according to data from IndexBox. Meanwhile, the US imported $6.6 billion worth of copper, sourcing primarily from Chile ($4.6 billion), Canada ($1.1 billion), and Peru ($672.8 million).
Citigroup analysts foresee a ‘balanced refined-copper market’ in the near term. While cyclical consumption remains stagnant, growth in demand from decarbonization initiatives is expected to be offset by slower-than-average growth in mine supply. Looking ahead, copper prices could recover to $10,000 per ton by 2026, contingent on a global manufacturing rebound spurred by monetary easing.
TRADE WORLD | Fenjiu Brings Chinese Liquor Culture to 2024 Belt and Road Conference
