The global wheat flour trade is expected to drop by 6% in the 2024-25 season, reaching 15.9 million tonnes, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). This follows a high of 17 million tonnes in 2023-24. The IGC’s revised projection is 200,000 tonnes lower than its July estimate.
The decline is partly due to reduced purchases by Iraq, the world’s second-largest importer, and a drop in sub-Saharan African imports, which had surged last year due to higher deliveries from Turkey. Turkey, the largest flour exporter, has seen its export forecast cut after a partial easing of a wheat import ban. Turkish shipments during the first two months of the current season were 700,000 tonnes, down by more than one-third from the previous year.
Despite this, Turkey will likely remain the top exporter, with total flour exports forecast at 4.4 million tonnes, down from 5.7 million tonnes last year and slightly below the five-year average.
Meanwhile, exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Egypt were revised higher. Kazakhstan’s exports are projected to rise by 300,000 tonnes to 3.2 million tonnes, a seven-year high, though local crop quality concerns remain.
On the import side, Iraq’s intake is forecast to drop by 600,000 tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes, the lowest since 2012-13. The decline is driven by local supplies and potentially less competitive offers from Turkey.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s imports are expected to fall by 400,000 tonnes to 2.6 million tonnes, below last year’s 3.1 million tonnes. In contrast, Afghanistan, the largest flour importer, is projected to increase its intake by 250,000 tonnes to 3.3 million tonnes.
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