India’s plan to raise US trade to $500 billion by 2030, alongside negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement, is expected to significantly boost Indian exports to the US, according to leading exporters.
The proposed trade expansion will focus on key sectors such as technology, defence, and green energy, enhancing India’s global competitiveness, exporters noted.
Ashwani Kumar, President of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), highlighted the importance of eliminating trade barriers and streamlining processes to achieve the bilateral trade target.
Deep Kapuria, Chairman of Hi-Tech Gears and an international trade expert, stated that the $500 billion target is a key outcome of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s high-level visit to Washington.
“India enjoys a trade surplus with the US, and the agreement could further boost exports to the world’s largest economy. Notably, both leaders have agreed to negotiate the first tranche of a multi-sector bilateral trade agreement by fall 2025,” Kapuria said.
He added that this decision would encourage US investors to explore opportunities in India and relocate operations to the country. “For Indian industry, this presents a major opportunity to expand exports and integrate into global value chains (GVCs) led by US companies,” Kapuria remarked.
However, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), an economic think tank, expressed scepticism about a full-scale India-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
“While the US seeks favourable tariff terms, it has little interest in broad FTA-driven tariff reductions. Additionally, India may see limited benefits in services, as Washington remains reluctant to expand business visa quotas,” said GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava.
Srivastava noted that several trade concerns are already addressed under the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), where India is a participant. He also cited former US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada, despite their USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) ties, as a sign of US scepticism toward trade pacts.
“Given these challenges, India should pursue sector-specific agreements rather than a comprehensive FTA,” Srivastava advised.
In 2023, India-US bilateral trade in goods and services reached $190.08 billion, comprising $123.89 billion in goods and $66.19 billion in services.
India’s merchandise exports to the US totaled $83.77 billion, with imports at $40.12 billion, resulting in a $43.65 billion trade surplus. Additionally, services exports stood at $36.33 billion, with imports at $29.86 billion, leaving a $6.47 billion surplus in India’s favour.
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