As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his swearing-in next month, the farming community is apprehensive about the potential reintroduction of tariffs, a hallmark of his first term. Experts caution that the agricultural sector, particularly in key soybean-producing states like South Dakota, may face significant challenges if such measures are enacted.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) farm income forecast reveals a bleak outlook, with declining commodity prices weighing heavily on farmers’ profitability. The potential for new tariffs under the incoming administration raises concerns of further economic strain, especially as global political instability and export competition intensify.
Ben Palen, head of the consulting firm Ag Management Partners, highlights the precarious position of U.S. farmers. While Trump regained strong support in agricultural counties during the recent election, Palen stresses the need for farmers to brace for potential fallout. During Trump’s first term, emergency aid was provided to offset losses from trade wars, but current calls for budget cuts could make such financial relief harder to secure.
Despite lingering support for Trump among farmers, many are wary of being caught in trade disputes again. Palen emphasizes the importance of diversifying markets for U.S. crops, arguing that policymakers should prioritise opening new export opportunities rather than escalating trade tensions.
Meanwhile, some officials, like Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, advocate for tough trade measures, insisting the U.S. must stand firm against economic rivals like China. However, the agricultural sector remains cautious, reflecting on the estimated $27 billion in export losses suffered during the previous trade war.
As Trump prepares to take office, the farming community waits to see whether rhetoric will translate into action and how these policies will shape the future of U.S. agriculture.
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